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419 mensajes Pág. 41 de 42

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nega
Registro: 03/07/2009
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euro/usd
12/07/2012 - 22:02

I have lost confidence in the impulsive option (From the February 29 top) that I posted on May 20.


We have to respect the statement that the daily momentum indicators are suggesting since we have a 2 months old positive divergence on both the RSI and the MACD.


A positive divergence usually occurs when price is involved in a bottoming process.


We don´t have any buy signal yet but the Stochastic is extremely oversold.


Imagen no encontrada o no válida


 


From the EW context without going into too many details I have always considered that structure of the down leg from the May 2011 top is not impulsive, for this reason I have been assuming that price is unfolding either a Double Zig Zag or a Zig Zag.


The issue to be solved in both options is that the final wave (C) has to be impulsive or it has to unfold an Ending Diagonal. In my opinion, if price is involved in tracing a wave (C) the internal structure looks more corrective than impulsive.


Below I show 2 potential Ending Diagonal projects for the Zig Zag and the Double Zig Zag options. The final target for both projects could be located in the area of 1.2000


The main difference is that if price is shaping the larger Ending Diagonal (Zig Zag option) then price has to overlap above 1.2622 for the assumed wave (IV), while in the case of the smaller Ending Diagonal (Double Zig Zag option) the pending wave (IV) rebound will be shallower.


Regarding the location within the long term EWP (From the 2008 top), the potential bottom could be either the second wave (A) of the Double Zig Zag option or the wave (D) of the Triangle option. (I posted both scenarios on June 25)


Clearly a catalyst will be needed in order to expect a “major” bottom; probably the FED and BCE will have to act.


Zig Zag Option.

Imagen no encontrada o no válida


2.  Double Zig Zag Option.


Imagen no encontrada o no válida


 
nega
Registro: 03/07/2009
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cambio
16/07/2012 - 16:09
la posicion alcista del bono a 10 años USA (IEF) por el etf de empresas de alto dividendo HDV a
60,01

Rentabilidad 0,08%

Al cierre hago el resumen desde el jueves 
 
nega
Registro: 03/07/2009
Mensajes: 5316
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.............
16/07/2012 - 16:16

Notas a 10 años mínimos históricos de rentabilidad en 1,442%

 
nega
Registro: 03/07/2009
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Rentabilidad
16/07/2012 - 18:08
desde el Jueves  en pares   =  0,07 %

Acumulado  en pares  3,45%


Rentabilidad anual en divisas del cambio euro/dolares 9,2 %

Total acumulado  ( desde el 1 de Enero ) 12,65 %

 
nega
Registro: 03/07/2009
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Rentabilidad
17/07/2012 - 21:32
 en pares   = - 0,06 %

Acumulado  en pares  3,39%


Rentabilidad anual en divisas del cambio euro/dolares 8,9 %

Total acumulado  ( desde el 1 de Enero ) 12,29 %

 
nega
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cierre de posiciones
18/07/2012 - 17:18
rentabilidad -0,5%

acumulado en pares 2,89%

Rentabilidad anual en divisas del cambio euro/dolares 9.6 %

Total acumulado  ( desde el 1 de Enero ) 12,49 %


Me quedo en liquidez.

Otra vez ando despistado, y prefiero estar en liquidez, bastante es estar en dolares, ire otra vez entrando poco a poco, aunqioe con estos bandazos es dificil.

 
nega
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grafico
19/07/2012 - 13:55
Imagen no encontrada o no válida
 
nega
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Nuevo par
19/07/2012 - 17:11
Corto en bono 10 ñaos IEF a 109,13  y largo en XLY consumo servicios
 
nega
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Escenarios tecnicos
23/07/2012 - 21:50

We’re hearing much talk about the potential Bear Flag pattern on the S&P 500 Daily Chart.


Let’s take a mid-week update on the pattern and note the current key price boundary levels to watch for clues.


First, here’s the S&P 500 Daily Chart trendline structure:


 


Imagen no encontrada o no válida

 


Moving from right to left, we see the current “Bear Flag” consolidation pattern stretching from early June to present.


The lower rising trendline resides near 1,340 while the upper rising trendline continues near 1,390.  The 30-min chart below emphasizes these trendline levels.


Now, moving to the left of the chart, the last time we saw a similar Daily Chart ‘flag’ struture was from August to October 2011.


While price did break the downside trendline, the full downside target was NOT achieved due to a power-rally which developed off the 1,100 Index level.


From there, price structure continued to trade mostly in a “Creeper” uptrend, bound by the prior “flag” trendlines until the breakdown of May 2012.


Here’s a current intraday perspective of the current Flag Trendline boundaries:


 


Imagen no encontrada o no válida

 


Again, this post focuses mainly on the trendline boundaries which extend from 1,340 to 1,390.


With the exception of a few minor Bear Traps (initial breaks that reversed back inside the structure), price has traded consistently between the dominant ‘flag’ trendlines.


The implication for the near future is that price will continue respecting (trading between) these boundaries, which suggests a continuation rally toward 1,380 or 1,390.


If so, we’ll all assess whether price continues its upward movement with a surprise breakout above 1,400 or else stalls and then trades lower toward the new lower trendline target.


That would be the “Trendline Continuation” thesis.


The alternate or Bearish thesis would be seeing something similar to what happened in September 2011, as seen in the chart below:


 


Imagen no encontrada o no válida

 


What I’ve tried to recreate in the chart above is the “step-inside” the Daily Chart flag pattern from August to October 2011.


We see a similar, better structured, parallel trendline channel from August until September 2011.


I pinpointed the potential “Fork in the Road” point where the market stands currently:


Either the market will continue trading within the trendline structure or else we’ll see a ‘failure’ and potential outcome similar to that of 2011.


In the case of 2011’s Bear Flag/Parallel Trendline Channel, price stalled under the upper boundary in mid-September, reversed, then broke convincingly under the rising lower trendline under 1,170.


After a throwback, price impulsed lower and reversed definitively off the 1,100 key support.


So, for short-term traders, be keenly aware of the two main potential outcomes from the dominant price pattern currently developing:


Either price continues to trade within the pattern toward 1,390 to 1,400 (bullish short-term), or else we see a stall/failure (bearish) which targets the lower rising line or even beneath it with a “history repeats” situation like that of 2011.

 
nega
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Con mas fundamentos
23/07/2012 - 21:51
Puro Andrews, el señor de los tridentes

Imagen no encontrada o no válida



nega dijo "SIGO":

viendo que el S&P esta respetando su canal alcista de largo plazo y que se irá para arriba, cuando rompa ese canal puede que haga otra cosa, pero le queda mucho.Imagen no encontrada o no válida



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